If the UCP’s motto is ‘we’re not happy until you’re not happy,’ then the proposed 2025 provincial budget knocks it out of the park.
And it’s not just lefties that are unhappy with last week’s budget announcement. Some UCP MLAs are also fuming.
Crack in the UCP Ranks
Two weeks after Alberta Infrastructure Minister Peter Guthrie quit out of disgust over government contract and procurement scandals, another crack has appeared in the UCP ranks.
In a scathing Facebook post, Scott Sinclair, UCP MLA for Lesser Slave Lake, said he can’t support the budget and is “furious at the amount of money being funneled into Edmonton and Calgary (as usual) while Northern Alberta and our riding are largely ignored.”
Budget widens the rural-urban divide
Sinclair took aim at money earmarked for projects in the two big cities. He listed the budget’s allocation of $2.9 billion for LRT (light rail transit) in Calgary and Edmonton, $2.6 billion for schools mostly for Calgary and Edmonton, $9 million for 50 new police officers in Edmonton, and $106 million to demolish Edmonton’s Northlands and develop a park.
“The continuous flow of our GDP to urban centers while rural Alberta— the backbone of this province— gets left behind is appalling,” Sinclair wrote.
Red ink on the road ahead
After four years of budget surpluses driven by surging oil prices, Finance Minister Nate Horner announced a big dip into red ink territory, with an expected deficit of $5.2 billion for the 2025-26 fiscal year.
The UCP blames the deficit on falling oil and gas royalties and uncertainty around Trump’s trade war tariffs. As of Tuesday, a 25 percent tax on most Canadian exports and a 10 percent tax on Canadian energy went into effect.
“We’re going to have to have hard conversations with Albertans about what we expect government to fund, the services we want to see,” Finance Minister Nate Horner said at the legislature last Thursday. “We made the difficult decision to run a deficit so that we can direct and target our spending to the top priorities of Albertans.”
The Conference Board of Canada, in an analysis dubbed ‘Wild Rose Uncertainty,’ called the budget “prudent” in the face of economic uncertainty but warned tariffs could hurt finances “even more than anticipated.”
The conference board also noted that Alberta’s fiscal picture is one of the strongest in Canada, with the lowest provincial net-debt-to-GDP ratio in Canada.
This ratio indicates a province’s (or country’s) ability to pay back debts by comparing what it owes with what it produces. In Alberta, that’s oil and gas.
According to one estimate, the price per barrel for the key indicator WTI (West Texas Intermediate) will drop from USD 70.62 in 2025 to USD 62.46 in 2026.
Marginal citizens and non-profits feel the hurt
A key budget announcement is a new lower provincial tax bracket of 8 percent on the first $60,000 of income that’s expected to save taxpayers $1.2 billion.
While income tax cuts are being welcomed by many, nonprofits that work with marginal populations are concerned these tax breaks won’t be enough to offset the soaring cost of living.
“Smaller affordability measures are always helpful but are not necessarily going to help folks stay afloat, especially if the cost of inflation and goods goes up,” Meaghan Redir, executive director of the anti-poverty group Vibrant Communities Calgary, told CTVNews.
The budget also slashes funding to many non-profits.
The Southern Alberta Individualized Planning Association, which supports people with disabilities, is on the chopping block. Funding cuts will force the organization to shut down.
“It’s a heart-breaking decision,” said executive director Leah Dormaar, in an interview with CTVNews.
Health care budget increase – but is it enough?
The budget also includes $28 billion in funding for health care, an increase of 5.2 percent.
Chris Gallaway, who heads up Friends of Medicare, said the budget increase doesn’t keep pace with Alberta’s growing population. He also said the budget will neither fix the “health care workforce crisis” nor stop the UCP’s resource-draining promotion of for-profit health care.
“Doctors, nurses, allied health professionals and other skilled health care workers are all telling us they are burnt out, constantly working short-staffed, and looking to leave the health care system altogether,” he said in a media release. “This is an urgent situation, and we need our government to be laser-focused on the frontline workforce with a plan for retention, recruitment and training. We didn’t see that in today’s budget.”
Playing with the numbers
The Alberta Union of Public Employees believes the provincial government is intentionally underestimating revenues so it can “plead poverty at the bargaining table.”
“The government has a history of underestimating revenues,” said the AUPE’s Alexander Delorme in a media statement following the budget’s release last week. “In Budget 2024, the government anticipated a small surplus of $400 million. In reality, the surplus turned out to be $5.8 billion. Nearly every department would move mountains for more resources. Many Ministries suffer from short-staffing and rising workloads, such as Children and Family Services, which is not receiving any staffing increases.”
Something for water planning and forest fire-proofing
Notably the budget’s strategic plan allocates $280 million over the next three years to “expand irrigation capacity and address modernization priorities and water supply needs across the province.”
In addition, $160 million is targeted for the development and implementation of an Alberta Wildfire Mitigation Strategy and to strengthen wildfire response.
Not much budget love for renewable energy
Peter Legault, a senior manager at Environmental Defense, said the budget fails “to take action to transition from a fossil fuel based economy to a renewable energy economy.”
He referenced an International Energy Agency (IEA) 2024 Oil Futures report that predicts by 2030 world demand for oil will have dropped by 1,000,000 barrels a day. “That sea change will happen during the next term of government. This is not some future scenario dreamed up by science fiction writers. This is a near-term forecast by the most credible energy insiders in the world,” he said in a statement.
