Prime Minister-elect Mark Carney had barely finished drinking his celebratory glass of champagne before Premier Danielle Smith pushed Alberta closer toward a separation vote.
The day after the Liberals were elected to a fourth term minority government, the UCP passed a bill that cut by two-thirds the number of signatures required to force a referendum vote on Alberta leaving the Canadian constitution.
Premier Smith’s electoral reform legislation means that instead of roughly 600,000 signatures, petitioners now need only 177,000 to sign on the line to trigger a referendum.
That’s just 3.5 percent of Alberta’s population.
The separatist group Alberta Prosperity Project claims to already have at least 140,000 signatures, more than enough to meet the lower bar.
The group touts the aim to “explore avenues for greater sovereignty within or outside the Canadian federation.” They are one of several groups in Alberta trying to push for Albertan succession.
President-in-Training
The timing of this bill, announced immediately after the federal election, is perhaps not so surprising.
Premier Smith’s defense of Canadian sovereignty in the face of Trump’s annexation taunts has been lukewarm at best.
Her appearances on Breitbart News and at a PragerU fundraiser in Florida have the stench of a Premier who relates more to Trump’s lawless and reckless dismantling of American democracy than she does to Canada.
Her arguments surrounding separation are based on the sentiment that Alberta’s economy is not as strong as it could be. Rather than considering worldwide oil prices or demand for crude, she’s pointed the finger at Ottawa to explain why Alberta’s oil industry is not as strong as it was forty years ago. Following the election, she issued a statement saying that Albertans “will no longer tolerate having [their] industries threatened and [their] resources landlocked by Ottawa.”
Problems with Separation
Alberta residents have the right to a self-determination referendum in the same way that Quebec residents do.
Quebecers have voted twice on independence, in 1980 and 1995. The separatists failed both times, albeit by a slim margin. In 1980, Quebecers who voted to stay won with 59.56 percent of votes, and in 1995, the vote to stay squeaked by with a tiny 50.58 percent.
The reasons why Quebec ultimately decided to remain a part of the Canadian constitution are complicated and at times unclear.
However, considering Quebec’s failed attempts at self-determination can instruct on how easy it will be for Alberta to separate.
The First Nations Factor
First there’s the question of Alberta’s Indigenous people.
Before Quebec voted on separation in 1995, Cree nations in Quebec held their own referendum. When asked if they consented to Quebec separating from Canada, 96.3 percent said no. Their grand chief, Matthew Coon Come, said he would lobby the United Nations if Quebec voted to separate. At the peak of the Quebec separatist movement, Cree people were organizing to ensure their territory remained part of Canada.
Separatists obviously haven’t spoken with First Nations who warn that the province sits on the land of Treaties 6,7 and 8.
“Those are treaties with the Crown, and Alberta lacks the authority to interfere with or negate those treaties,” Troy Knowlton, chief of the Piikani Nation, said in a statement. “Proceeding down a path toward separation cannot be undertaken without the consent of Alberta’s First Nations.”
The chances of getting that consent are unlikely.
Economic Impact
Then there’s the question of what an independent Alberta would look like for business and the economy.
Not great, says Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economics professor. He told CBC News that companies and capital would flee, the same way they did when Quebec flirted with separation.
“The tax base would shrink, companies would leave Alberta, as we’ve seen with Quebec [following threats of separation]. That would really change the fiscal landscape,” Tombe said. “Any time there’s risk of separatism increasing, a lot of those corporations might shift their headquarters elsewhere, so we may see the corporate tax base leave Alberta to Toronto or Vancouver, just as we saw happen to Montreal.”
Taking on responsibility for federally-run programs could lead to tax increases.
Negotiating new trade deals would be time-consuming and expensive, as the United Kingdom experienced post-Brexit. Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2020, goods exports have decreased 30 percent and small businesses struggle with the added expense of cross-border bureaucracy, according to a BBC report.
Being landlocked and without access to shipping ports, an independent Alberta would also likely have to pay through the nose to pipe oil and gas through Canada.
Alienation Fuels Separation
These are emotional times. Feelings of Albertan alienation may be hitting a high note in Alberta, as well as Saskatchewan, following the defeat of Pierre Poilivre’s Conservatives.
But emotions sometimes cloud clear thinking.
”When times are good, the rest of the country benefited from Alberta and Saskatchewan. But on the other hand, when times have been bad, Alberta and Saskatchewan benefited from them,” said Saeed Moshiri, economics professor at the University of Saskatchewan. “So the net effect on Canada has been positive, and it’s been a win-win situation for both.”
It’s Messy, But It Works
Maybe Albertan separation talk is exactly what born again proud Canadian and former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says it is.
In a post to X, Kenney urged Albertans not to allow the “futile ranting” of separatists “to dominate the debate, distract from the real issues, and distort Alberta’s real identity as a proud, confident, patriotic province.”
Despite our “frustrations,” he wrote “the vast majority of Albertans are, and always will be, proud Canadians.”
The Canadian federation is messy at times.But extracting Alberta from Canada would be expensive, a lot messier, and likely wouldn’t be a win for regular Albertans.
