The De Paoli family has been farming in Cayley, Alberta, since 1914. In that time, they’ve witnessed almost everything that could happen on a farm.
But this year, something happened they hadn’t ever experienced in the hundred years they’ve been farming. The first of their harvests matured by July 26, about three weeks ahead of schedule!
“This is the earliest we’ve ever farmed,” Chance De Paoli told CTV News.
This may sound like a win at first glance, but it’s far from good news. A hot stretch like the ones we’ve experienced the last few summers may make crops mature quicker, but their yield is far below average.
“The earlier it comes off, the less of the yield for sure,” said De Paoli
Darold Niwa, a Canadian farmer from near Oyen, Alberta, had a similar experience. “Until June 10, I felt I was sitting pretty,” he told Reuters Magazine. But then things changed.
His durum, a high-protein wheat especially in demand, yielded only a fraction of what it usually does. Typically, it produces 45 to 52 kernels per head. Still, this year, it was just six to eight. Because of this, rather than making a profit, Niwa will “probably take a loss.”
This year’s durum wheat harvest in Canada, which usually accounts for half of global trade, is expected to be the second-smallest in 12 years. Statistics Canada predicts only 4.3 million metric tons, significantly impacting the global supply chain.
Canada isn’t the only country feeling the squeeze. Drought and heat are affecting crops in the United States, while Spain is grappling with drought, and Italy and France have mixed-quality crops due to severe weather.
This scarcity of durum has consequences. Pasta prices in Italy soared, leading to a crisis meeting in their government.
Italy’s renowned pasta makers, unable to source enough durum, have had to turn to unusual suppliers like Turkey.
Severine Omnes-Maisons, an analyst at Strategie Grains, told Reuters: “There’s not going to be enough durum to supply the whole world at a normal demand level.”
Vincenzo Martinelli, president of the durum section of the Italian millers association Italmopa, is anxiously awaiting the outcome of the Canadian harvest. “Without Canada, prices will only go up,” he warned.
But things aren’t looking a whole lot better for farmers here. According to Statistics Canada, overall wheat production in Alberta is projected to drop by almost a fifth from 2022 to 9.4 million tonnes in 2023.
This results from lower anticipated yields even though more acres were planted this year than last. Experts predict a drop of almost 20 percent to 44.6 bushels per acre.
It’s not just pasta prices that will take a hit; cattle farmers are also feeling the heat. Rising feed prices and shortages are forcing many to cull their herds, which is another hit to the agriculture industry.
As of August 1, 2023, Agriculture Canada reported record-low wheat and durum stocks, breaking last year’s record following a severe drought.
The ongoing stress is taking a toll. Chance’s uncle, Angelo De Paoli, told CTV News, “It’s a lot of uncertainty. So, the good years will get you through, and in bad years, you can survive on insurance. Hopefully.”
