The new Battle of Alberta is whether or not the province will remain in Canada.
The Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) is pushing separation, arguing that independence would make Alberta rich. The province could expand its oil and gas industry without federal restrictions and keep more of its wealth at home.
Their vision speaks to frustrations many Albertans feel about rising costs.
But there are good reasons to question whether the APP’s promised oil wealth would actually make its way into the pockets of everyday Albertans—or go to industry CEOs instead.
The APP has also recently acknowledged that it has been in discussions with the Trump administration about its separation plans. This relationship raises questions for Albertans who value independence and fear foreign influence in their affairs.
A referendum on the horizon?
The APP wants a referendum asking Albertans, “Do you agree that Alberta shall become a Sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?”
The question is currently under review by a judge, to determine whether it is constitutional.
Meanwhile, a group that wants to keep the province in Canada, called Alberta Forever Canadian, wants to ask its own referendum question: “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?”
Led by former Progressive Conservative Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk, they argue separation would hurt the economies of both Alberta and Canada.
The group’s question has been approved but they need to gather just shy of 300,000 signatures before October 28 if they wish for it to be put to a referendum.
Money questions
It’s no secret that life has gotten expensive for many people living in Alberta.
Housing, insurance, and grocery costs have all skyrocketed since the pandemic. More than in any other province, Albertans now live paycheck to paycheck—with 41 per cent reporting that they regularly worry about money.
The APP is promising struggling Albertans that, by splitting from the rest of Canada, the province can keep and control its wealth.
Alberta would no longer participate in the federal equalization program, which transfers federal tax dollars to provinces that lack sufficient revenue in order to provide standard levels of public services.
And, they say, the province would no longer be forced to cut back on its oil production because of federal regulations.
APP general counsel Jeffry Rath said in an interview that if Alberta were to separate, he expects the province could immediately move to construct at least five oil and gas pipelines, bringing in $20 billion a piece.
“Within three to five years, we can more than double Alberta’s oil production and Alberta’s fiscal capacity surplus would be such that we can become a zero income tax jurisdiction like Dubai or Monaco,” he said.
Benefits not clear
What requires further scrutiny is whether the APP’s projections are credible—and whether the oil industry growth promised by the group would benefit working Albertans.
Record production levels and steady growth in Alberta’s oil patch over the last ten years have not brought with them increased employment in the sector. Instead, much of the money the industry has generated in recent years has gone to oilfield executives and shareholders.
There have been fewer and fewer jobs in oil and gas in Alberta in recent years. Alberta Worker reports that close to 50,000 oilfield jobs have been lost over the last eight and a half years.
There’s less need for manpower to extract oil from the ground. The oil sands have already been built. The pipelines have been built. Automation is increasingly responsible for “routine, repetitive, or dangerous tasks” such as oil sands maintenance and monitoring – jobs which used to pay handsomely.
So while a separation from Canada might help expand Alberta’s oil patch, there’s no guarantee that it will lead to more jobs or more money in the hands of working class Albertans.
The Trump connection
The APP has also acknowledged that the Trump administration is interested in supporting them.
“We’ve had meetings with the US administration and they’re very interested in significant expansion of Alberta oil and gas capacity, both from a national security perspective and from a national energy security perspective,” Rath said.
APP executive Dennis Modry said he “talked about a $500 million transition loan” with the Trump administration to help Alberta become an independent country, according to reporting by DeSmog.
This at a time when the Trump administration has directly threatened Canadian sovereignty, referring to Canada as the 51st state.
Albertans need answers to the affordability woes weighing on them. It’s not clear, however, whether plans of separating from Canada will help everyday Albertans—or whether they will, instead, simply be a boon for oil companies and the Trump administration.
