Alberta separatists are digging up fossils in a desperate attempt to stoke their agenda. Preston Manning, the grandfather of this movement, recently penned an opinion piece in the Globe and Mail arguing that a vote for Mark Carney’s Liberals would be a vote for Western separation.
Premier Danielle Smith is similarly all-in on bashing the Liberals. There’s no better way to distract voters from made-in-Alberta problems.
Like the overwhelming mess of abandoned wells that delinquent oil and gas companies and government schemes have left behind. These abandoned wells could leave Albertans on the hook for up to $80 billion in clean-up costs.
Or the government’s efforts to undermine and underfund public health. The increasingly dysfunctional Alberta Health Services.
Don’t forget the UCP’s mismanagement of coal mining. The UCP is now facing billions of dollars in lawsuits from coal companies that claim they were told one thing and given another, and it will be citizens that pay for these screw-ups.
Smith has cautioned Carney that if he becomes Prime Minister, he needs to prioritize fixing the Alberta problem.
Yes, there are some reasons as an Albertan to be frustrated at times with patronizing federal politics. But let’s face it, giving the finger to Ottawa has been a defining narrative in Alberta politics for the past several decades.
A Tide Shift
An unsettling change might be on the horizon for Conservative populists who flirt with the idea of separation. Recent federal election polling by 338Canada suggests not all Albertans are as single-issue focused as Preston Manning thinks they are.
If current numbers hold, Albertans will elect six Liberal Members of Parliament (MPs) on April 28.
However, as freelance journalist Cole Bennett writes, “if progressive voters turn out in full force” and “avoid splitting the vote in key urban ridings” it could make for a historic election night, with 11 Liberal and two NDP MPs heading to Ottawa to represent Alberta.
That’s 13 out of 34 seats. It would mark a monumental shift away from Prairie populism to progressive politics.
Battleground Ridings
According to 338Canada polling, 13 key battleground ridings in Calgary and Edmonton will shape the outcome for Alberta.
As of April 11, Liberal Corey Hogan was a single percentage point behind Conservative Jeremy Nixon in Calgary Confederation.
Similarly in Edmonton Riverbend, Liberal candidate Matt Minenko was trailing Conservative Matt Jeneroux by one point.
These are just two of the 13 superheated election races in Alberta.
The Trump Factor
Barely three months ago, the Conservatives were popping the champagne corks, assured of an easy victory in the upcoming election.
In an interview with Politico, Frank Graves, founder of EKOS Research Associates, said he started to see a shift in late January.
The potential shift in Alberta is likely a result of Trump’s threats to Canadian national unity torpedoing Pierre Poilivere’s leadership. According to Graves, public opinion data that EKOS gathered over the past six months showed that the onslaught of Trump announcements, annexation threats, and tariffs triggered a surge in the sense of national identity that was only recently at a 35-year low.
“It produced this really dramatic rise in national attachment, which is the main factor that propelled the Liberals to their elevated position,” Graves said.
At the same time the Conservatives rapidly lost the huge 25-point lead they enjoyed while PM Justin Trudeau was still at the Liberal helm.
Poilievre’s Achilles’ Heel
EKOS polling reveals more about the Conservative base that helps explain why Trump’s actions are eating away at Poilievre’s lead in the polls.
For example, the average Conservative supporter is 25 times more likely than a Liberal to approve of Trump and to view the Freedom Convoy favourably. They’re also much more likely to believe disinformation, such as that activist arsonists are responsible for forest fires or that the government is hiding the real numbers of vaccine-related deaths.
“They look a lot like Trump voters,” Graves said.
For Poilievre, that’s a tough association to wear at this moment in Canada-U.S. relations.
But the real gains for Carney’s Liberals have come from what Graves calls “lapsed Liberals” who went Conservative because they were sick of Trudeau.
“That’s where a lot of the growth for the Liberals happened. Some of those started coming back,” he said.
Alberta’s urban ridings are a testing ground for this trend. Will the shift of Conservative fortunes at the national levels sweep into Wild Rose Country? This is one election not to miss.
