As the festive season approaches, Canadians are tuning into a familiar tune – “White Christmas.”
But for many across the country, including Alberta, the dream of a snow-covered landscape remains just that, a dream.
David Phillips, Environment Canada‘s chief climatologist, puts it bluntly: “If you don’t have snow now, you’re not going to get it.”
In Edmonton, locals like Anna Lenz are making the most of the unseasonably warm weather.
Sitting outside on Jasper Avenue with her dogs, she shares, “They’re loving it. We can go out and walk and come here for a coffee with only a vest on. That’s nice.”
This sentiment reflects a broader reality across Canada, where the lack of snow is becoming increasingly noticeable.
A Brown Christmas for Many
Officially, in weather speak, the term “White Christmas” means having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground – a sight that is becoming rare in many parts of Canada.
In Calgary, the remnants of snow are battling warm chinook winds, while Ottawa’s minimal powder is barely enough for festive activities. Even Montreal’s iconic toboggan runs and skating rinks are closed due to the mild temperatures.
Vancouver’s Cypress Mountain recently announced on social media platform X its closure due to “inclement weather,” with temperatures soaring to 9℃.
This warm weather pattern echoes from Prince Rupert, BC, to Cornerbrook, N.L., and up to the Arctic regions of Inuvik and Iqaluit, where snow levels are significantly below average.
Edmonton and major cities like Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax are marked as snowless on Environment Canada‘s snow map.
The current forecast for Christmas in both Edmonton and Calgary is a high of above zero, with temperatures on Boxing Day that could reach 6℃. If the forecast holds, it will be the first brown Christmas Edmonton has seen since 2005.
Ski enthusiasts find themselves limited, with online reports indicating that only about one-third of ski runs across 41 resorts open.
For those craving a traditional snowy landscape, options are limited to Newfoundland’s coast, Quebec’s Saguenay region, and a small area in southwest Alberta where snow levels are slightly above average.
One-Two Punch: El Niño and a Warming Climate
The underlying cause of this snow scarcity is a combination of warm and dry conditions which persisted throughout the year.
“The snow hasn’t had a chance to collect,” explains Phillips. “It’s just been too warm and too dry.”
This trend, alarming to many, is not just a seasonal anomaly.
Environment Canada’s Phillips expresses concern over the potential impact on next year’s crops and forests, noting that the lack of “moisture is very concerning on the Prairies.”
The situation is so dire that almost the entire country is classified as “abnormally dry,” with parts of southern Alberta reaching “exceptional” drought levels.
The underlying factors include a strong and early El Niño and a general warming trend.
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, characterized by the warming of surface ocean waters along the equatorial coast of South America, often causing significant global warming weather changes.
Phillips notes, “El Niños are different now. This one is taking place in the context of a warming world.”
The current El Niño is expected to last through 2024.
Anna Lenz, enjoying the warmth in Edmonton, acknowledges the troubling implications: “Global warming, you can see it happen. It’s worrying.”
This sentiment encapsulates the mixed feelings of many Canadians who enjoy the mild weather but recognize its ominous origins.
As Canada faces a holiday season unlike any other, the absence of a traditional white Christmas is a stark reminder of the changing climate and its far-reaching impacts.
