If you’re like us, you’re constantly checking the weather forecast, wondering what the week will bring and if you should plan a hike or BBQ for the weekend or just hunker down for a predicted storm. And when the expected weekend sunny skies turn cloudy, most of us joke that the weatherperson is the only person paid to be wrong.
Many people complain that weather forecasts are inaccurate, but is that because we only remember when the forecast was wrong and focus on that, or is weather forecasting more accurate than we think?
According to Our World in Data, three-day forecasts—shown in blue below—have been pretty accurate since the 1980s and have improved significantly, hovering around 97% accuracy.
The most significant improvements in weather predictions have been for longer timeframes. By the early 2000s, 5-day forecasts were “highly accurate,” and 7-day forecasts are reaching that threshold today. 10-day forecasts aren’t quite there yet but are getting better.
So, if longer-time-frame predictions become less accurate, should we put any faith in the seasonal forecasts the Farmers’ Almanacs put out for the year ahead? For example, one almanac predicts this winter in Alberta as “the winter with a heart of cold.”
Should we stock up on hand warmers and scarves… or are the Farmers’ Almanacs’ predictions just a bunch of road apples?
Two Almanacs
Interestingly, there are two different “Farmers Almanacs”—the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmers’ Almanac. Both release seasonal forecasts yearly and predict a cooler and wetter-than-normal winter for Albertans.
Canada’s Farmers’ Almanac winter weather forecast calls for “a season of rain and snow with not much downtime.” The almanac continues, “Winter temperatures will be coldest from the Prairies into the Great Lakes region. The coldest outbreak of the season will come during the final week of January into the beginning of February when frigid Arctic air brings a sharp plunge in temperatures, especially across the Prairies.”
The Old Farmers’ Almanac predicts winter will be colder than usual throughout the Prairies. They predict the most frigid temperatures in early and late December, early and late January, and mid- and late February. Both precipitation and snowfall are expected to be above average across the prairies, with snow coming early and heavy snowfall in mid-to-late November. According to the Almanac, it will be snowiest in early and late December, early January, mid-February, and early March.
Accuracy?
Both almanacs claim to have a high accuracy of around 80%. But then again, both almanacs make very generic claims. As Brian Ivey of Snow Plow News stated, “The more detailed they try to get, the less accurate the result. When it comes to general precipitation and temperatures compared to average, they are right around a flip of a coin at close to 50%.”
A local news station in Memphis put the Farmers’ Almanac predictions to the test; they looked back at the forecasts for the last ten winter seasons and then compared them to what happened in the Memphis area to determine the almanac’s accuracy. According to the station, “When all of that was said and done, we came up with an accuracy percentage for the Farmers’ Almanac winter forecast of 45%.”
They added, “There’s a problem with generic forecasts like the Farmers’ Almanac – they’re very subjective. A forecast of “very cold” can mean different things to different people. What if it’s warm all winter, but we have one major cold snap? Some may call that accurate, and others may not.”
Even though the accuracy of both almanacs’ forecasts is no better than chance, each year, the predictions from these publications get a lot of press, generating headlines such as “Albertans Should Buckle Up For A Chilly Winter, According To The Long-Term Forecast.” Ironically, that headline and forecast was for the 2023/2024 winter, which was much milder and had far less snow than average.
But most of us are weather junkies, not only checking the daily forecast but also longing to know what is in store for the season ahead.
Maybe you should just not plan your life beyond the specifics of a 5-day forecast; after that, it’s anyone’s guess.
